Evaluating GMGM

Today on "THe Mke Wise Show with Holden Kushner" on 106.7 The Fan, Capitals beat writer Sky Kerstine questioned whether longtime GM George McPhee is currently managing for this job. McPhee has long been considered one of the top General Managers in the NHL, but in a season where many considered the Caps to be a Cup contender, the possible disastrous end to the season will begin discussion of McPhee's job security. As the old adage goes, it is hard to fire the whole team, so normally the coach and GM are the first to go.

So, if the Caps miss the playoffs, should GMGM go? To answer that question, we need to look at his career as a whole, not just this year. To truly evaluate a GM, you need to consider four major factors: draft success, free agent signings, trades, and extensions.

Draft Success: McPhee's draft success has been a mixed bag, with the early years being questionable and the late years looking much better. Obviously, the best player McPhee drafted was Ovechkin in 2004 and that was hard to mess up. Up until the 2004 draft though, it can be argued that McPhee had at best 2 good draft picks, Eric Fehr in 2003 and Semin and in 2004, and only Semin has been exceptional. McPhee also blew a chance to really improve his club in 2002 when he selected Gordon, Steve Eminger, and Semin in the top 20 picks while missing on the likes of Cam Ward and Duncan Keith. As a whole, from the year 1997 to 2003 only 8 McPhee picks saw extensive time with the team, which is terrible.

Post 2004 has been a different story for McPhee. Thanks in large part to the 2003 fire sale, McPhee did exceptionally well in the early rounds of drafts. The 2004 draft netted Ovechkin, Mike Green and Jeff Schultz in the 1st round, all of which have made significant impacts on the team. Then the 2006 draft saw Backstrom, Varlamov, and Neuvirth join the team in the first 2 rounds while the 2007 and 2008 drafts created the dynamic defensive duo of Alzner and Carlson in round 1. More recent drafts are hard to judge, but players like MoJo, Orlov, Kuznetsov, Holtby, Galiev, Eakin and more look like solid picks. While tis clearly shows McPhee has improved as a judge of talent, he has not yet found a late round gem, although that is really hit or miss.

Free Agent Signings: This is the area where I think McPhee has fallen short of expectations. Take this year alone, where Hamrlik and Joel Ward have been huge disappoints that are impossible to move. There is also the disaster that was the Nylander signing as well as the extension given to Jagr right after trading for him. McPhee also chose to settle for Brian Pothier rather than go all out for Zdeno Chara.

This is not to say it has all been bad. Mike Knuble has been great in his time with DC and his Robert Lang signing in 2002 would have been good if at a different time. Viktor Kozlov also was a good signing as well Tom Poti in 2006 and Halpern and Voukoun has worked out this year.

Trades: McPhee's best area in my opinion. The only truly bad trade he has made was the deal for Jagr. He was masterful before the lockout, moving aging stars such as Peter Bondra, Robert Lang, Adam Oates and more for important future pieces such as Brooks Laich, Fleischmann, and picks that turned into people like Mike Green. He also has been very good at the deadline. In 1998 he traded for ESA Tikkean, who despite his infamous missed goal in game 2 of the Cup Finals, was key to the 1998 Cinderella Cup run. His moves in 2008 to bring in Cristobal Huet, Sergei Federov, and Matt Cooke can be considered franchise altering as it propelled the Caps from worst to first in the Southeast and signaled the success of the rebuild. His trades for Zubrus and Wideman were also good and despite the success of Fleischmann this year, the trade for Hannan was right at the time. The Brouwer move at the draft this year also seems to be strong and he robbed Colorado blind with the Varlamov deal that gave the Caps 2 1st round picks.

Extensions: If trades are McPhee's strength, I would argue this is his weakness. McPhee seems to continually resign players too soon or for too much. A prime example of too soon was Tom Poti, who has not seen the ice since he resigned 2 years ago. Example of too much would be Schultz, who had one good year and has been terrible since. Many now would also point to the Ovechkin deal as too long and too much, but at the time it was 100% the correct move.

So to summarize, McPhee has improved in his drafting and talent evaluations, is good at making adjustments via trades, yet often falls short of free agents and extensions. Most would consider that pretty good for a GM and this would be the first season he has really fallen short of expectations given the teams success.

So, should he be fired if the Caps miss the playoffs? Yes and no. You cannot fire the whole team, and Bruce was already fired so McPhee is the logical next choice. But, the new coach and injuries should save him as no team could succeed without their top center snd defeseman for most of the season. But, he might need to have a come to Jesus moment and realize that the core he has committed to might not be able to get the job done and drastic moves will need to be made. So, I think he gets a pass this year, but his choice on how to respond to a missed playoff will determine his long term future.