Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Miracle on F Street

In order to have a successful season, an NHL team needs to be able to do two things, beat the teams you are suppose to beat and occasionally win the games you are suppose to lose. The Capitals managed to do both last night in the five most thrilling minutes of the seasons. When Matt Moulson scored for the Islanders 2 minutes into the final frame, all the air and excitement exited Verizon Center and every living tuned into Comcast Sportsnet. There was no way the 2011-2012 Washington Capitals without Nick Backstrom were going to win that game. And of course, as soon as it looked like they were going to break through, Matt Hendricks takes an offensive zone penalty and before we know it, only 5 minutes remain in regulation. Queue the Miracle on F Street.

The best players in the game last night were the grinders: Chimera, Brouwer, and Beagle. So, it came to no surprise that the improbable comeback started with two of them. With about three minutes to play, Chimera won a puck battle in the corner, allowing Matheiu Perreault to make a desperation centering pass that found Troy Brouwer on the far post and swing the momentum to DC. Two minutes later they pulled Neuvirth, and for 30 seconds of 6 on 5, the puck was almost exclusively in the neutral zone as a tired Capitals squad tried desperately to get the puck in the offensive zone. Luckily though, the Islanders cleared the puck into their own bench, allowing the Capitals to call a timeout before an offensive zone draw. The decision of the night was then made by Assistant Coach Jim Johnson, who drew up the tying tip in goal and chose to put Jeff Halpern on ice for the draw, sending the Verizon faithful into the biggest frenzie ever for an overtime forcing goal when Brouwer deflected a Laich shot pass Nabokov. Less than 5 minutes later, the much maligned captain netted the overtime game winning goal in vintage fashion to complete the comeback.

Now, it is important to keep things in perspective. This was one game and a game at home, which has not been the concern this year. It was also against one of the few teams in the East that are outside of the playoff race. It is a game that Capitals were suppose to win, yet barely did. They looked sloppy and frustrated for most of the night. Passes were routinely off the mark or intercepted, cycles often did not lead to chances, and the power play was nothing short of miserable. Despite the rally at the end, many of the key players looked bad, mainly Ovechkin and MoJo. And they are still clinging to 8th place in the conference.

But, it is also equally important not to undervalue the win. It was a very important 2 points in the standings that they stole late. Despite the sloppy and disorganized at times play, they did manage to be in control most of the time. That sounds odd, but I do believe the Capitals were the better team last night and frustration started to take over. They also outshot the Islanders by a recent margin and Michal Neuvirth was nothing short of spectacular at times. Troy Brouwer getting on the scoresheet again is also huge as he is part of the secondary scoring that has been missing lately.

The biggest positive of last night? At the risk of sounding cliche, it was the fact that the Capitals found some heart. Over the weekend leading into the trade deadline, Barry Melrose said the Caps were the most disappointing team in the league and that no trade would solve their lack of heart. It's hard to argue against that statement given the collapses and laughers the Caps how had this year. Last night was a different story. The Capitals 100% lose that game a month ago. But last night they found an extra gear late and gutted out a win. Brooks Laich said after the game that last nights comeback win over the lowly Islanders might sway the season. He very well could be right, but only if they follow it up this weekend with performances against the Devils (who are 5 points ahead of the Caps) and Flyers that are as inspired as the last 5 minutes of last night's win.

Monday, February 27, 2012

Around the NHL on Trade Deadline

The Caps were not the only quiet team out there. Many were with no real big names moves, making Tradecentre on TSN very awkward. Here is a brief rundown of the impact deals.

- Jeff Carter to LA, with Jack Johnson and 1st going to C-Bus

Great move for both. Carter back with Richards and a stud defenseman for Columbus. Move actually happen last week as the big news out of Columbus was Rick Nash staying put.

- Sami Paulsson leaves Columbus as Vancouver deals a 2 and 4.

Good depth for a team that can make a run at the Cup again.

- Cody Hodgson (Van), prospect, and pick for Zack Kassian (Buf), Marc Andre Grangnai and pick

Huge risk for Vancouver as Hodgson is a blue chip prospect who might win the Calder. Kassian is a big body, but a short term move. Only works if they win it all.

- Brian Rolston heads from the Islanders to Bruins for prospects. Also add Greg Zanon.

Have to think this could have been Knuble and Hamrlik. McPhee likely wanted too much, or as he said, would not take futures and picks. Mistake.

- Daniel Winnick and TJ Gallinari leave Mile High for SJ in exchange for Jamie McGinn.

Toughness upgrade in SJ and a young player who has shown the ability to score tis year goes to Colorado.

- Paul Gaustad to Nashville for 1st. Nashville also reunites the Kostitsyns.

Former Caps GM Polie knows this is his shot since they cannot keep Weber and Suter. Gave up a lot for Gaustad and glad McPhee did not do it. Kostitsyns is a risk, but if he messes well again with his brother and behaves, big payoff.

- Johnny Oduya leaves the Peg for Chicago for a 2 and a 3.

Fills a hole for Chicago and gave the Jets good value. It also weakens a team the Caps are chasing,

So again, not much, but no one knows the almost deals. Caps say they were not close to any deals. It was a buyers market with no sellers, although we have no idea how close McPhee got and whether he will live to regret not pulling the trigger.

Huh?

The trade deadline has come and gone. There will be no new faces in DC, yet the disgruntled faces of Knuble and Hamrlik remain. In a move described by many so called experts as shocking, GMGM made no changes to the current Capitals roster. Curiously though, the team did place Backstrom on long term IR, although GMGM confirms that it is retroactive, so he could play next week if healthy. The only advantages to LTIR is that it openes a roster spot and make room under the salary cap, and in Backstroms case 6.7 million in space. I really felt that meant a move was coming given the timing of the decision. They could have done that tomorrow and still opened a roster spot. Not moving Hamrlik makes no sense at all. He has been a disaster, is on the books next year, does not mesh with the coach, and could help a team needing depth. Take literally anything for him.

Now, if the Capitals tried to make moves and the price was too high, good on GMGM. For instance,the Capitals needed a second line center, and Paul Gaustad would have been a good fit. But he cost Nashville a 1 and 4. Not worth it. And if options for bigger players involved Kuznetsov, ditto. But, it is hard to believe nothing could be done to improve this team, despite McPhee's claim that there was nothing out there better than what they have or could call up from Hershey.

Going into today, the Capitals were engulfed in uncertainty. They went 3-3 on during an important stretch of the season leading up to the deadline and the team has bounced between 10 and 8 in the conference for the last week or so. One assumes when you are going well and want to move to the next level you deal. Clearly not the Capitals. You also deal when you are not going well and want to give yourself a chance. Then of course, when you are not going well and are to far behind to improve, you sell. That Caps fall into both those categories, yet did nothing, signaling that they not only lack an identity on the ice, but also in the main office. McPhee clearly does not know what to make of this team, so rather than making a change, he is going to live or die with a team that constantly takes one step forward then two giant steps back. And it is terrfying to hear that McPhee has been happy with the play the "last few days", implying that he thinks it can turn around without any changes. He did nothing to help them live and nothing to ameliorate the death.

Meanwhile, the Panthers added two depth forwards over the last few days and the Jets are streaking. Nothing is over and anything can happen over the last 20 games, but one cannot help but think this was McPhee throwing in the towel without really letting us know that is his plan. He just simply does not know what to make of this team. The best we can hope for is that e team makes a little run, sneaks into the 7 or 8 spot (or 3 if they win the SE no one seems to want to win) and Nick Backstrom starts skating in mid March and is ready at the gates when the post season starts and the Caps make a run. Clearly what McPhee thinks will happen, but seems unlikily with the uncertaintiy with concussions and the lack of action today. Unlikely. More likely seems to be sneaking in and leaving early or scheduling tee times in early April. McPhee stated that with Backstrom, this team can beat anyone in the East, without they can make the playoffs, confirming that he is putting all his eggs in a healthy Nick Backstrom basket. Yet he did nothing to help them get to the point where there is an opportunity for Backstrom to help.

Just starting to look like a season that began with the Caps getting the steal of the free agency and being crown Stanley Cup Champs in "The Hockey News" preview is actually going to fall incredibly short of expectations.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

What Does it All Mean

Huge win in FLA, two inexcusable defeats during arguably the most important stretch of the season followed two convincing wins, one on the road. And all days before the trade deadline. Many, including this blog, felt that the last 6 games would determine the fate and direction of the team for the rest of the season. And naturally, they went 3-3 and ended with 2 wins in a row, leaving them points wise in the same spot as before but with a sense of optimism that they might be close to turning the corner. What it also does is confirm that this team is both inconsistent and lacks identity. But if you take the pulse of Caps nation today, many would say the season is still very much

The feeling that the Caps are not dead yet is a fair one. They are getting very lucky right now, that despite their play, they are staying in the same spot in the standings because every team around them is also floundering. All that has really changed is that the Jets are now in the mix. Florida is becoming the team everyone thought they were, good but not a threat, and Toronto is doing the typical Toronto flop. So the Capitals are alive.

At the same time though, there is no doubt that this team has issues and many of them are not quick fixes. Hunter is beginning to look Ike he might not be the answer, which is not helped by the tear Bruce Boudreau is currently on. The power play is still terrible and the Caps trend of playing poorly early on the road has crippled their record.

So, what should GMGM do before 3pm tomorrow? Those who see the team as flawed, lacking depth, talent, and the consistency necessary to make it out of the first round would advocate selling the team, which means moving Semin, Vokoun, Knuble, Halpern, Hamrilk, And Wideman for picks and prospects. Those who have been fooled into thinking this is a Stanley Cup team again would throw the farm at Columbus order Nashville for Rick Nash and Ryan Suter. So, what to do?

Not to take the easy why out, but the answer lies in between. The Caps are only 1 point out of the playoffs and the 3rd seed. And while the road trip could have gone better, they did pick up 6 points a kept pace. Even if you do not think they are capable of a run, a team cannot completely sell when they are clearly in the hunt. It sends the wrong message to the team, coaches, and fans. And do not underestimate that last point. The Caps have build a strong brand in DC cannot ruin that by selling when 1 point out. There is also the impact of Mike Green's return. Despite his polarizing effect on Caps Nation, there is no doubt the team plays better when him in place. So, in a way, the Caps have already made an internal trade deadline upgrade. Plus, action at the trade deadline would do exactly what many have thought the Caps have needed in the past, meaning games down the stretch to transition into a run in April, May, and June.

So, do both. First, move Knuble and Hamirlik at minimum. They are great for teams firmly in the playoffs, but bad for those fighting to get in. Take picks, players, or prospects. It does not matter. Also consider moving Vokoun for a big enough return. The Caps need offense and Neuvirth looks like he can handle the rest of the year. But do not move him for nothing. Then, make a play for a center. This can be a bigger splash move than normal for McPhee at the deadline. Possible targets should be Derek Roy, Derek Brassard, or the newly available Tomas Plakanec, who would be a perfect fit with Alex Semin and a potent one-two punch with Backstrom if he returns. All these deals should be possible with picks as long as McPhee turns the players above into picks. The only big name I would consider moving is Semin and only if he returns something solid. I doubt he is back next year either way. So essentially, buy and sell to give you a chance this year without forfeiting the farm, which might be needed if this all fails.

If none of this works and the season goes down in flames, blow it up this offseason. But there is no reason to do it at the deadline given where they stand today.

Monday, February 20, 2012

Evaluating GMGM

Today on "THe Mke Wise Show with Holden Kushner" on 106.7 The Fan, Capitals beat writer Sky Kerstine questioned whether longtime GM George McPhee is currently managing for this job. McPhee has long been considered one of the top General Managers in the NHL, but in a season where many considered the Caps to be a Cup contender, the possible disastrous end to the season will begin discussion of McPhee's job security. As the old adage goes, it is hard to fire the whole team, so normally the coach and GM are the first to go.

So, if the Caps miss the playoffs, should GMGM go? To answer that question, we need to look at his career as a whole, not just this year. To truly evaluate a GM, you need to consider four major factors: draft success, free agent signings, trades, and extensions.

Draft Success: McPhee's draft success has been a mixed bag, with the early years being questionable and the late years looking much better. Obviously, the best player McPhee drafted was Ovechkin in 2004 and that was hard to mess up. Up until the 2004 draft though, it can be argued that McPhee had at best 2 good draft picks, Eric Fehr in 2003 and Semin and in 2004, and only Semin has been exceptional. McPhee also blew a chance to really improve his club in 2002 when he selected Gordon, Steve Eminger, and Semin in the top 20 picks while missing on the likes of Cam Ward and Duncan Keith. As a whole, from the year 1997 to 2003 only 8 McPhee picks saw extensive time with the team, which is terrible.

Post 2004 has been a different story for McPhee. Thanks in large part to the 2003 fire sale, McPhee did exceptionally well in the early rounds of drafts. The 2004 draft netted Ovechkin, Mike Green and Jeff Schultz in the 1st round, all of which have made significant impacts on the team. Then the 2006 draft saw Backstrom, Varlamov, and Neuvirth join the team in the first 2 rounds while the 2007 and 2008 drafts created the dynamic defensive duo of Alzner and Carlson in round 1. More recent drafts are hard to judge, but players like MoJo, Orlov, Kuznetsov, Holtby, Galiev, Eakin and more look like solid picks. While tis clearly shows McPhee has improved as a judge of talent, he has not yet found a late round gem, although that is really hit or miss.

Free Agent Signings: This is the area where I think McPhee has fallen short of expectations. Take this year alone, where Hamrlik and Joel Ward have been huge disappoints that are impossible to move. There is also the disaster that was the Nylander signing as well as the extension given to Jagr right after trading for him. McPhee also chose to settle for Brian Pothier rather than go all out for Zdeno Chara.

This is not to say it has all been bad. Mike Knuble has been great in his time with DC and his Robert Lang signing in 2002 would have been good if at a different time. Viktor Kozlov also was a good signing as well Tom Poti in 2006 and Halpern and Voukoun has worked out this year.

Trades: McPhee's best area in my opinion. The only truly bad trade he has made was the deal for Jagr. He was masterful before the lockout, moving aging stars such as Peter Bondra, Robert Lang, Adam Oates and more for important future pieces such as Brooks Laich, Fleischmann, and picks that turned into people like Mike Green. He also has been very good at the deadline. In 1998 he traded for ESA Tikkean, who despite his infamous missed goal in game 2 of the Cup Finals, was key to the 1998 Cinderella Cup run. His moves in 2008 to bring in Cristobal Huet, Sergei Federov, and Matt Cooke can be considered franchise altering as it propelled the Caps from worst to first in the Southeast and signaled the success of the rebuild. His trades for Zubrus and Wideman were also good and despite the success of Fleischmann this year, the trade for Hannan was right at the time. The Brouwer move at the draft this year also seems to be strong and he robbed Colorado blind with the Varlamov deal that gave the Caps 2 1st round picks.

Extensions: If trades are McPhee's strength, I would argue this is his weakness. McPhee seems to continually resign players too soon or for too much. A prime example of too soon was Tom Poti, who has not seen the ice since he resigned 2 years ago. Example of too much would be Schultz, who had one good year and has been terrible since. Many now would also point to the Ovechkin deal as too long and too much, but at the time it was 100% the correct move.

So to summarize, McPhee has improved in his drafting and talent evaluations, is good at making adjustments via trades, yet often falls short of free agents and extensions. Most would consider that pretty good for a GM and this would be the first season he has really fallen short of expectations given the teams success.

So, should he be fired if the Caps miss the playoffs? Yes and no. You cannot fire the whole team, and Bruce was already fired so McPhee is the logical next choice. But, the new coach and injuries should save him as no team could succeed without their top center snd defeseman for most of the season. But, he might need to have a come to Jesus moment and realize that the core he has committed to might not be able to get the job done and drastic moves will need to be made. So, I think he gets a pass this year, but his choice on how to respond to a missed playoff will determine his long term future.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Notes from Kettler

Interesting day at Kettler for the Caps. Yesterday, longtime goalie and legend Olie Kolzig called out Ovechkin for not working hard like he did in his younger days and succumbing to "the rock star life that comes with being Alex Ovechkin". One would expect the team to try and smooth that comment over, but McPhee was shocking frank when asked about it and said the comment was not entirely untrue.

On the ice, reports are that the rock star and the all star exchanged words and shoves as Ovechkin and Wideman apparently had a brief altercation. Both shrugged it off after practice, but tense practice and tense words from the boss are both worth noting. This either means the run is coming...... Or the wheels are about to completely come off. Now would be the time to run with a 4 game road swing that includes games v Ottawa, Carolina, Tampa, and of course FLA. A 4 game tear against teams that are in the race but not overly intimidating would be just to medicine to cure the woeful Caps.

Flyers also made a deal for a defenseman today, which could officially start the trade deadline excitement. No new news from the Caps besides McPhee saying that Knuble would not be traded. But, if we have learned anything about McPhee over the years, it's to never trust what he says this time of year.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Caps Rumored to be Burning Up the Phone Lines

It is no secret that the Capitals as currently constructed are not equipped to necessarily make the playoffs, let alone compete for the Stanley Cup. With the trade deadline set for Monday Feb 27, the rumor mill has been ablaze and the Capitals are supposedly right in the middle. One report had McPhee as the GM “burning up the most phonelines to improve his squad”.

So, what can or should the Capitals do? The next 6 games and the health of Green and Backstrom will drive what McPhee does so its difficult to speculate how big a move will be made. But speculating is fun, so lets give it a try.

1. What do we need?
Again, this is entirely predicated on Backstrom and Green. If both are healthy, the Capitals could make minor, low risk moves to improve depth, toughness, and leadership, like all teams look to do in March. But, if the two former “Young Guns” are still shelved, the Capitals desperately need depth at center and another reliable defenseman.

2. Who should go?
First, we need to break the team down into four categories: Unavaliable/Get Them Out/Blue Chip Prospects/ Can Be Moved.

Unavailable: Just what it sounds like. Short of an offer of the Sedins, Stamkos, or Toews/Kane, no way these Capitals leave town:
- Alex Ovechkin- The calls to trade him are insane.
- Nick Backstrom- Hopefully there is no arguing his value now.
- Karl Alzner- Soon to be shut down star.
- John Carlson- Tough sophomore season, but is the most well rounded defender in the system
- Marcus Johansson- Look out next year.
- Brooks Laich- Heart and soul.
- Dmitry Orlov- Will develop into offensive star.
- Jason Chimera- Speed, heart, strength.
- Troy Brouwer- This one is arguable, but I really like his game. Young Knuble.

Get Them Out: Would love to move them out and would take just about anything offered within reason.
- Jeff Schultz- Enough said.
- Roman Hamrlik- Looks old and is becoming a liability
- Joel Ward- I know he is suppose to show up in May, but we need help now!

Blue Chips: Most deadline deals involve prospects. These are the ones that if asked for, McPhee should hang up right away.
- Evgeny Kuznetsov- World class talent who will make immediate impact next year. Would love to have him now.
- Braden Holtby- Think he was always the best of the three (Neuvy and Varly). Technically sound and plays older than his age.

Can be moved: When the dust settles, here are the players that can contractually and team need wise be move.
- Mike Knuble: His age has finally caught up to him. He can be a nice addition to a team like Boston, Vancouver, New York, or Detroit looking for veteran leadership for a cup run. But the Caps need help now!
- Jeff Schultz: Someone will be intrigued by his size and we can fool them into thinking his +50 in 2009-2010 was not a fluke.
- Mike Green: If the Capitals make a run at a big player, Green could be the key piece to get it done. He is young and his skills are without question. A team looking to rebuild would love to have him run the PP and since he is an RFA next year, he is not completely a rental. With the emergence of the Caps new trio of defenders and the injuries, I think Green might be done in DC regardless. It would for sure be a risk, but if he is still doubtful to return to full strength this year, McPhee should not say no.
- Matheiu Perreault: This can only happen if it nets a center or Backstrom returns. Perreault has been hot, making him more valuable than ever right now. When the team is healthy, I do not think Matty P gets a jersey on a regular basis.
- Cody Eakin: Like his game and think he could help in the future, but any big deal will likely include him given the two players off the table in the prospect category.
 
And now the fun one…..
 
- Alex Semin: The most mentioned name in any Capitals trade for the last 5 years. Semin is a world talent when he wants to be. The problem is, he never wants to be. This is an incredibly risky move given the Capitals scoring woes and his relationship with the core players. But, I doubt he returns next season (and might even bolt to the KHL), so if it nets a goal scorer, pull the trigger.

3. Ideas- Here are some possible trades. Some are for fun, but others could work....

Pipe Dreams

Semin, Green, & Picks for RICK NASH 
Nash is the biggest name in the rumor mill right now and no doubt he would look great next to Ovechkin and Backstrom. This package could get it done and without Semin the Caps could support the contract, but this is a true long shot.

Semin, Eakin, and Schultz for RYAN SUTER 
This one is not as crazy as it looks. Suter would easily be the Capitals best defender and could pair with Alzner to shut down anyone in the league. Nashville cannot afford to resign Suter and Weber and have always needed goal scoring. They are in the mix and Semin could help this year for sure. Not likely, but I think it could work.

Semin, Eakin, Prospects for MIKE RICHARDS
The Kings have always been linked to Semin and are in desperate need of offense. Mike Richards is exactly the type of player the Caps need. He has not fit in as planned in LA, so another deal that is unlikely but not crazy. The length of the contract would also be a reason for the Caps to hesitate.

Big But Reasonable Additions

Perreault and Picks for DEREK ROY
Roy, who finally is healthy, has been mentioned in many deals and this one could actually work. Buffalo put a lot of money into the team this year and failed miserable. This gives them some cap relief while giving the Capitals a very credible playmaker to help make up for or complement Backstrom. Plus, Buffalo very well could be getting Roy’s replacement in the deal. Paul Gaustad is another option, but it would need to be straight up.

Schultz for HAL GILL
This one I could actually see happening. Hal Gill is well known for being the Ovechkin Killer in DC as he and current Cap Hamrlik were a key part in the 2009 playoff disappointment. He is a shutdown defender with size and could very well bring the best out of Hamrlik. Montreal would be getting size and youth back, so straight up should do. Most would have preferred Tim Gleason, but Carolina locked him up.

Schultz and Prospect for WAYNE SIMMONDS​
This one is almost a pipe dream, but the parameters are not insane. Flyers need a defenseman and the Capitals need offense.

Minor but Effective

Knuble for BENOIT POULIOT
Boston is the type of team that could use Knuble for a Cup run. Pouliot has shown an ability to score, particularily in Minnesota, but has been inconsistent in Boston. He brings more to the table than Knuble does at this point and would be an upgrade in all areas but leadership.

Pick or Prospect for DOMINIC MOORE
Moore is the definition of a depth center that could give Halpern a rest at times but is also capable of playing up in the line up.

Schultz for CAM BARKER
Depth defender with an expiring contract and gets Schultz off the books. This deal could really apply to numerous defenders around the NHL.

Will update this post as more names appear in the rumor mill.

Side Note: VS telecast just said the Ducks have the best record since Jan 6. Brice Effect.


 

Monday, February 13, 2012

Caps Fall in NYC; Road Woes Threaten to Cost Playoff Spot

Combo Recap and Road Ahead

It previous posts, it was stated that the Capitals needed to follow the Panthers win with strong showings at home against the Jets and on Broadway Sunday afternoon. No use dwelling on the sudden loss to the Jets, but the Capitals did have a decent showing against the Rangers on Sunday. The game for the most part was fairly evenly matched when one considers it was the #1 team in hockey playing at home against a team incapable of playing on the road. There were some definite bright spots despite the loss. The 1st two periods featured “Sasha Care” prominently, as the enigmatic sniper scored the 1st goal of the game and blocked a shot during an odd man rush for the Rangers. Neuvirth looked sharp at times and the Capitals showed a strong grasp of the Hunter offense as there were many extended offensive possessions based off cycling in the corners.

Unfortunately, the bright spots were not enough to help the team escape their road woes. Semin disappeared in the 3rd and Ovechkin again was neutralized by a defender (Dan Girardi) for most of the contest. The power play looked pathetic all game and ultimately cost them as the eventual game winner was scored shorthanded by Brandon Prust. In addition, two key defenders really showed their age in this one, both on the old and young side. Roman Hamrlik continues to be beat to pucks in the corner, often extended defensive zone time. Meanwhile, Orlov looked like a rookie as he was out of position on multiple occasions.

So what does this all really mean moving forward? Points are at a premium right now so these games cannot be washed away anymore. We are really reaching the point where the playoffs are coming into question. The facts do not lie and are startling:

- Road Win Percentage: 33% (9-15-3)
- Road Point Percentage: 39% (21 points out of 54 possible)
- Power Play: 18% effective (12th in NHL)
- PK: 81% effective (22nd in the NHL)
- Shots on Goal per Game: 27.4 (27th in the NHL- and keep in mind, inflated because of the coaching and philosophy change)

These numbers are not the numbers of a playoff team. Playoff teams win at home, but also take care of the road at a much better clip than 33%. The shots on goal might be the most disturbing of the statistics and is the one that might alter the others the most.
The schedule is also not favorable

Remaining Schedule:
- 14 Road Games
- 12 Home Games
- 11 Games against Playoff Teams (6 on the Road, including a 100% L to the Red Wings at the Joe)

If the current pace continues (and the Capitals win 81% of their home games) the Capitals will add 28 points to their current total, giving them a total of 89 points, which would have finished 10th in the conference last season. That’s the bad news. The good news is that the Capitals hold a great deal of their fate in their own hands. There are currently 9 teams that are “in the hunt” with DC (Devils, Senators, Panthers, Maple Leafs, Jets, Habs, and Tampa Bay) and 13 of their remaining 26 games are against those teams, meaning wins can help the Caps while crippling their opposition. Back to bad though, seven of those 13 games are on the road. And 4 of the next 6 are both on the road and against some of the teams in the hunt, making the next 6 games, highlighted by a Friday night clash with the Panthers, the key stretch of the season.

So how do the Capitals ensure that they get the job done? A key on the road has been scoring first in their few victories, which would mean a more aggressive approach from the drop of the puck. I personally would like to see a lot of Perreault/Semin/Chimera early as they seem to come out flying the most. They also MUST generate shots, and the ability to cycle the puck at MSG Sunday showed that they are capable of producing effective offensive possessions.

There is one last thing that needs to happen, but it is completely out of the team’s control. The Washington Capitals desperately need the services of Nick Backstrom, who as of now has still not begun skating. Pierre McGuire mentioned it yesterday, but Backstroms absences has affected many areas of the team. Not only is he maybe the best player on the team, but his absence has a huge impact on Ovechkin. Not only does he lose his setup man, but he also becomes the central focus on the top line and must deal with defenders like Chara, Girardi, and Hedman alone. His absence is also felt on the Power Play where the playmaking duties have fell to the very young Perreault and Johansson. The Capitals with a healthy Nick Backstrom (and Green would help as well) are probably comfortably in the playoffs and jockeying for position now. Without him, they might miss the playoffs.

Time to right the ship v San Jose tonight.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

After Collaspe, Caps Take on Rangers at MSG

After failing to get both points in a heartbreaker at Verizon Thursday night, the Caps head to Broadway for a battle with the first place Rangers. The Rangers are fresh on a Saturday matinee win over their rival Flyers so the Caps might see a tired team coming down from an emotional high. Expecting an easy Caps win this afternoon against the playoff ready Rangers is doomed to failure, but a good showing in necessary given the inexcusable loss to The Jets at home. The first 10 minutes will go a long way in showing whether the Caps are a resilient enough bunch to bounce back in e heat of a playoff race. I still hold that a win on Broadway is not completely necessary, but a strong showing is.

Notes for today's tilt

- Rangers Captain Ryan Callahan is coming off his second career hattrick vs the Flyers. The Rangers Captain is equivalent to Brooks Laich on the Caps, so look for him to make an impact today.

- Save the last 3 minutes of regulation Thursday, Vokoun has been stellar and streaking, which is good news for DC. Vokoun gets the nod today against the always spectacular Lundqvist.

- No Backstrom or Green again. Look for the suddenly clicking trio of Perreault, Semin, and Chimera to continue to pick up the offensive slack.

- One can assume Knuble will get a jersey today after sitting in the press box Thursday. If he does, look for him to respond to his healthy scratch. If he does not, Knuble might be a regular in the press box as Hunter likes to play the hot hands.

- In the Southeast Division race, the Pamthers take on the Islanders at 3. Nabokov has been awesome of late, so hopefully that trend continues.

- Rangers are 7-2-1 in their last 10 and have won 3 straight. Capitals are 4-3-3 in their sat 10.

- Capitals power play clicked on Thursday and will need to continue to have a shot today. Hopefully Ovechkin will be on the boards and not the point.

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Back on Top

FINAL SCORE: CAPITALS 4- PANTHERS 0
GOALS: WAS (PERREAULT, OVECHKIN, CHIMERA, OVECHKIN)/ FLA (NONE)
GOALIES: VOKOUN-W/ CLEMMENSON-L

In a game Coach Hunter called a playoff game, the Capitals produced a game that shows that the new system and personnel is capable of performing when it counts. Led by a stellar game from Vokoun and an energized Ovechkin, the Caps retook the top seed in the Southeast at least for the day with a convincing 4-0 shutout of the Florida Panthers. It was a game reminiscent of the rock star Caps of 2008 and served some notice that the Panthers have some work to do before they unseed DC. Will the play continue or will the inconsistent Caps return? Only time will tell, but it's nice to know the Capitals that to many offer the only hope for DC sports still can be found at 7th and F.

Recap

1st: It was clear the Caps showed up for this one, as the crowd was on their feet quickly. The Caps controlled the opening draw and a Chimera feed from behind found its way to a sudden red hot Matheiu Perreault alone in front just 13 seconds into the clash of Southeast Titans. The power play even clicked in this one, with an Alex Ovechkin strike making the score 2-0 at around the 10 minute mark. The Panthers started to make noise late in the period, but Vokoun shut down his old mates repeatedly and kept the score 2-0 at the end of the 1st.

2nd: The Capitals again stuck early in the 2nd, this time thanks to a pretty passing display that ended with a Chimera chip in. The Panthers continued to push, but Ovechkin ended all doubt of the outcome with an incredible individual effort after a physical Troy Brouwer caused a turnover. Ovechkin almost completed the trick on a 2 on 1 with MoJo, but Clemmenson made an impressive pad save to deny the Great 8.

3rd: Not much to say about the 3rd as Vokoun continued his stellar play and Ovechkin hunted for the hat trick. The defense held strong all period and the Caps skated off the ice to the roar of the red clad Verizon faithful as the video board updated the Southeast standings.
 
HERO OF THE NIGHT: Vokoun, Ward, and Laich
Vokoun Is a given. The Capitals won this game not because of the offense (which was timely and opprotunisitc for once) but because of the stellar 42 save performance by Vokoun. He got lucky a few times, but was spectacular at other times. Hop on the Vokswagon.

The telecast gave Player of the Game to Chimera, and rightly so, but DC Hockey Spot is going with the maligned Joel Ward. Ward signed a big deal this offseason and has not been as advertised thus far. But, he was signed for the playoffs and if his performance in the February playoffs was any indication, the deal MIT not be that insane.

Laich gets a shout out for playing on one leg. Heart and soul guy.

GOAT OF THE NIGHT: Shots on goal

The Caps only fired 24 shots on Clemmenson. That is not enough,particularly when the opposition fires 42. Without even a good Vokoun, the Caps lose that game.

Final Thoughts

This game can either be the beginning of a run or another blip on the radar of a disappointing season. There were many positive signs, such as an energized and high flying Ovechkin and a stellar Vokoun who normally streaks. Caps also got superb performances from the likes of Brouwer, Ward, and Chimera, who are the guys you need playing well to be a complete team. The Caps outhit the Panthers and won many puck battles. But, this game does nothing to prove the Caps have solved their 3 major problems: shots on goal, consistency, and the road. It was a big win, but it only means something if the Caps follow up with a similar effort against the Jets tomorrow and maybe more importantly the Rangers at MSG on NBC on Sunday. They do not need to win both (although it would help), but they need to prove they can string games together both at home and on the road. Only time will tell whether their February playoff win is a statement or a lie.

Friday, February 3, 2012

Let's Fill the Rafters

Between Stanley Cup Banners and Retired Jerseys, the Montreal Canadiens have the most impressive rafters in hockey. As the Capitals visit Montreal tomorrow and the hopes of adding a CUp banner in DC fades, let's try and add some more jerseys to the rafters of Verizon.

All Time Greatest Caps by Numbers

What gets you on the list: Numbers, Years, and Moments

1: Ron Low- 1st goalie to ever suit up for DC. Had little no no success, but there is something to being 1st.

2: Ken Klee

3: Scott Stevens: Was very successful in DC before winning the Cup with the Devils. Trails only Calle Johansson in points by Cap defenseman.

4: Kevin Hatcher

5: Rod Langway- Secretary of Defense and 2 time Norris winner. Still an active Alum.

6: Calle Johansson- All time games played leader and 1st in points by a defenseman. Except him to really be in the rafters someday.

7: Ivan Labre: Solid defender who scored 1st ever goal for DC

8; Alexander Ovechkin: Will likely be best ever when he hangs them up.

9: Danius Zubrus: Played a solid role in the lean years before Bruce.

10: Kelly Miller

11: Mike Gartner

12: Peter Bondra: Maybe the most popular Cap ever who arguably was one of the top goal scores of is era,

13: None worthy

14: Pat Peake: For what could have been....

15: Jeff Halpern: True hometown kid

16: Bengt Gustaffson

17: Chris Clark

18: Craig Laughlin: Voice of the Caps actually had a scoring touch

19: John Druce: Druce is Loose in the playoffs gives him the nod over Backstrom for now.

20: Michal Pivonka: All time assist leader. Backstrom before there was Backstrom

21: Dennis Maruk: Original Ovechkin

22: Steven Konowalchuk: Dino has better numbers......but it's Kono

23: Brian Bellows: Leadership during the Finals run

24: Mark Tinordi

25: Lots of choices......but no good ones

26: Would pick Keith Jones but he is a Flyer commentator now.

27: Craig Berube

28: Alex Semin

29: Joe Reekie

30: None worthy

31: None worthy

32: Dale Hunter: Greatest Captain in history

33: Don Beaupre

34: Al Ifrate: Hardest shot extraordinaire

35: None worthy

36: None worthy

37: Olaf Kolzig: Best goalie in franchise history

38: Cristobal Huet: Huge in the Capitals worst to first season under Boudreau

39: None worthy

40: None worhthy

41: Jason Allison

42: Not Joel Ward

43: None worthy

44: Richard Zednik

45- 51: None worthy

52: Mike Green: Pretty good and is the only choice.

53: None worthy

54: None worthy

55: Sergei Gonchar: Offensive star on the blue line for many years.

56-76: None worthy

77: Adam Oates: Key part of Fianls run

78-86: None worthy

87: Donald Brashear

88-89: None worthy

90: Joe Juneau: Star of the run to Finals with his OT heroics

91: Sergei Federov: Short lived, but score big goals (clinched SE and beat the Rangers)

So which of these deserve to be retired? I will guarantee 8, 12, and 37. Would like to see 6 and 20 as well.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Road Weary Caps Drop Out of the Playoff Picture

Final Score: Florida 4-Washington 2
Goals: FLA:Samuelsson (2), Weiss, Mathias: WSH: Laich, Carlson
Goalies: W- Clemmenson: L- Neuvirth

Summary

It is slowly reaching the point where the Capitals horrendous play on the road might end up costing them. The Capitals continue to not put enough shots on net and showed a complete lack of urgency until they were down 2 late. While there were some positives to takes from the loss in Tampa on Wednesday, it was hard to find too much positive in this one.

Recap

1st: The Caps came up unusually hot to start the game, hiring 9 shots in the first 10 minutes of play, yet we're unable to dent the twine. The offenseive attack slowed considerably in the second half of the period and the Caps entered the locker room tied at zero, thanks in large part to a very sharp period by Neuvirth.

2nd: Unfortuantley, the sharp start from Neuvirth came to an abrupt start early in the frame. Samuelsson caught Neuvirth leaning on an assumed dump into the zone and fired a shot on net that beat a surprised and embarrassed Neuvirth. The Caps answered back later in the period on a great individual effort by Brooks Laich and the Caps and Cats entered the 3rd knotted at 1.

3rd: The tired legs and aversion to the road caught up with DC in the 3rd. The Panthers took the lead for what turned put to be for good 4 minutes into the 3rd on the power play with Hendricks off for goalie interference. About 5 minutes later Weiss scored on an initially disallowed goal to put the game essentially out of reach. The referees intitially washed the goal out thinking Weiss had hit the puck in with his hand, but video review clearly showed it was a good goal. The Capitals tried to wake up and play after that and Carlson scored with 2 mins to go, only to promptly turn it over with the goalie pulled to put the game out of reach.

Star of the Night: Orlov and Laich
Orlov played over 22 minutes and looked sharp all game. Looks like he has all the makings on a mainstay on the backline that will allow Schultz to be moved and lessen the impact of a missing Mike Green. Laich brought his normal strong game.

Goats of the Night: Neuvirth and Semin

The goal from the redline changed the game. That has to be a save. Semin had only 3 shots on goal and none after the 14 minute mark of the 3rd. Unacceptable when you are the offense gun in the line up.

Final Thoughts

It was said about, but the Capitals simply must figure out the road. They cannot play like this and expect any success in the playoffs, let alone make the dance. The Capitals also sorely miss Backstrom. When Perreault plays 15 minutes and centers your top line, you have a major problem.

It would be nice to write these last 2 games off since 3 of the top 5 players were out. But the Caps cannot afford to ever have off games at this point and let's be honest, this is not new. Outside of Wideman and Brouwer the entire team is slumping and if it does not get fixed quick, things might get really ugly.

Capitals visit Montreal Saturday afternoon. Ovechkin returns and loves playing in Canada, so maybe that combined with Hendricks (or Rechlicz even) v Bourque round 2 will be the start of a run.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Caps Fall in OT

FINAL SCORE: Tampa Bay 4- Washington 3 (OT)
GOAL SCOERES: WAS (Hendricks, Perreault, Brouwer); TB (Purcell, St Louis, Thompson, Stamkos-GWG)
GOALIES: W- Garon; L- Vokoun

Summary
The Capitals drop a close division game 4-3 in OT and gained a valuable point in the standings entering a pivotal Southeast match up against the Florida Panthers. The game as a whole was very sloppy on both sides. That can be attributed to the All Star Break, but in the case of the Capitals there is a good chance it had to do with who was missing. The Capitals look lost and times and passes were off all night, particularly on the anemic power play. With all those factors, it is somewhat impressive the Capitals were able to get a point, which was the general feeling in the locker room postgame.

Recap
1st: The start of this Southeast tilt was very sloppy and it took both teams awhile to start clicking. The Capitals drew blood first though and Brooks Laich made an impressive falling sweep pass to Matt Hendricks driving the net. Hendricks whiffed on the shot, but recovered with an impressive top shelf backhand. The positive energy was zapped away later in the period though as a defensive breakdown by Hamrlik led to an easy backdoor goal from Teddy Purcell in the close minutes (which has plagued DC this year).

2nd: The second period was all about momentum. Tampa Bay came out flying in the 2nd and threatened to score on multiple occasions. But, the Capitals took to momentum about a quarter of the way in thanks to one of many sparkling saves by Vokoun as he robbed Stamkos on a breakaway. Moments later, Mathieu Perraeult took a high stick from Steve Downie that gave the Capitals a 4 minute power play. Unfortunately, the power play struggles continued and a fruitless power play shifted the momentum right back to Tampa Bay, resulting in two goals against (the first of which should not have counted). The Capitals made it a game with a lucky bounce off Nate Thompson on a Perreault centering feed to make it 3-2 heading into the break.

3rd: The Capitals used their momentum from the 2nd to play a pretty good all around 3rd period that resulted in the game tying goal by Brouwer (thanks in part to a questionable hold by Brooks Laich). After failing to break the tie, the Capitals went into a very conservative mode for the last five minutes, clearly playing for the 1 OT point.

OT: Tampa Bay had most of the chances and would have ended the game much sooner if not for the heroics of Vokoun, whose save on Lecavilier might have been the save of the year. Laich had a chance to end the game, but failed to make the next pass and despite another spectacular save on St Louis, Stamkos put home his league leading 33rd goal to clinch the game for Tampa.
 
Star of the Game: Laich/Hendricks/Brouwer Line
​The trio was by far the best line for the Capitals all night. Lots of energy and threw a ton of pucks on net to create scoring. This is a line I would consider keeping together even when the big guns come back. More to come on lines later.

Goat of the Game: Hamrlik
​The 37 year old continues to look very slow and out of position at a lot. He was terrible on the 1st goal and even though he was interfered with, looked bad on the 2nd. Carlson gets 2nd place honors here as he was Hamrlik's partner most of the night.

Final Thoughts
​Considering the struggles the Capitals have had on the road this year, any sort of points have to be a small victory. And fighting back from down 2 without Ovechkin and Backstrom is also impressive. But it is hard to overlook how sloppy they looked for most of the game. It is also reaching the point where you get the sinking feeling that if the road doesn’t get fixed soon, it could cost the Capitals the Southeast if not the playoffs all together. 
​As for the lines, with so many people out, Hunter has had to juggle and I think he has found something that could work. Semin-Perreault-MoJo looks like a line that could work as the Boston game showed. Last night, Laich-Hendricks-Brouwer showed a lot of promise as an energy line with some punch to it. I would keep those intact even when healthy and put Chimera on the wing with Backstorm and OV. They did that some last year and I really liked the straight line no nonsense speed Chimera brought to the table. The other option is to put Knuble there, who is bound to breakout at some point.  That would leave Halpern-Knuble-Ward as a very experienced 4th line.
Big tilt tonight in FLA that could go a long way in determining the Southeast Crown.