Long Overdue
Since the last post, a good deal has happen and we have seen really 3 very different Washington Capitals teams. We start with the typical 2012 Caps. An embarrassing 5-0 loss to Zach Praise and the Devils followed by a 1-0 home loss to the hated Flyers erased all the good vibes the team was sending to fans following the comeback win over Long Island. Then they seemed to get it right against the Hurricanes going up 2-0 early, only to see the Canes fight back early in the 3rd to take the league on an easy goal caused by a dumb and risky play by Wideman.
Then we had the Cardiac Caps. Brooks Laich, who has been leader for the club the last month, tied the Hurricanes game late in regulation to gets the Caps a point they desperately needed in the standings. Unfortunately, another boneheaded, ill timed pinch by Wideman lost the game for DC in bonus hockey. Two nights later, the Cardica Caps were back as MoJo scored late in the 3rd ie the game v Tampa and the Captain won it in OT thanks to the grit and determination of Json Chimera and a sublime hesitation play by stud rookie defenseman Dmitry Orlov
But, the Cardiac Caps were not the only team in the building v Tampa. Following a tounge lashing from Dale Hunter, begging his club not to relying on their skill but rather their desire, the playoff bound Capitals showed up. Thanks in large part to a shutdown Tampa offense, the Caps controlled the 3rd period v Tampa, not allowing the Bolts a shot on cage until the game was already tied. They were the far dominate team, and their hardwork paid off as the game tying goal was on a broken play for Tampa.that dominating and intense hockey carried over to Saturday afternoon as the Caps downed the Stanley Cup Champs in their own barn for their best road victory of the season. And it was a game earlier in the year they would not have won as the late 1st period strike by Lucic would have doomed the Feburary Caps. They followed up their impressive effort back home on Sunday with a convincing 2-0 shutout of the sinking Maple Leafs.
6 games, 3 different Caps teams, 7 points, and no post. So no in depth analysis of any game, but here are some notes and observations from the week behind and the week ahead.
- The next 5 are all on the road, including stops in the Peg, the Joe, the Madhouse, and Philly. That's a murders row. They need to at worst go 2-3 on that stretch to stay on the race, and the Jets on Friday is a must win. I am predicting 3-2, with the Ls being against the Red Wings and Flyers, as Bryz is hot right now. But, if they Caps from Boston show up, who knows.
- Caps seem to be buying into the cycle game to score goals more since the Tampa game. They have had many impressive offensive zone shifts and they are wearing teams down. They also have started to capitalize on mistakes more, with the exception of poor Mike Knuble. Hunter also seems to have settled on some lines that work.
- The Power Play still blows, although the last 2 games have been sightly better. Want to see more Ovechkin on the end board.
- Agree with the suspension, but not the length for Green. I think Connolly put himself in that position and he did return to the ice.
- Three Stars over the last 3:
Number 1 in my mind has been Brooks Laich. He seems to have taken this team on his back, scoring 2 huge goals and making his presence felt in hard to score places. He really should be the Captain of the Caps.
Number 2 is Jay Beagle and his line mates Brouwer and Hendricks. They have been the teams best line the last 3 chipping in physically and offensively.
Number 3 is Orlov, who is playing far beyond his years logging big time minutes and adding another dimension to the Caps offensive attack.
- Caps need Halpern back. They have been outplayed in the face off dot.
- Neuvirth played exceptionally well v the Leafs, but look for Vokoun to get the bulk of the starts down the stretch. He is still number 1.
- Nick Backstrom has started skating. If he can get back this year, the whole outlook can change.
- Consistency is going to be the key moving forward. If the Caps play like they did the last three, there will be games in at least mid April. That means cycling the puck to create offense and generating shots and playing tough man defense. But really, there have been three things that have made the last three good: solid goaltending, minimal mistakes, and familiarity and confidence on the offenseive lines.
- Interesting point made by Brian McNally. If the Caps play over 500 hockey down the stretch, 7-6, they will only miss the playoffs if the Jets or Sabres go 9-3-1, Tampa goes 11-3 or the Leafs go 11-1-1 (or better obviously). Zero % chance it comes close to playing out like that, but those odds look pretty good. Although if the Caps continue their win 3 lose 3 trend and any of those scinerios play out, they would have a must win on Broadway to end the year.
- RG3 is already more popular than the Great 8.
- Don't look now, but the Penuins are on a tear and are a mere 4 points back of the Rangers. That means, if Florida holds on to the SE, we might be in for a Pens/Caps Quarterfinal with a healthy Crosby. Scary thought, but bring it on!
Note: Wrote this before the Islander game but had Internet issues until yesterday. Suffice to say a lot of the same analysis applies, with the addition of Keith Aucoin as a surprise contributor. Caps showing some resilience in being able to comeback, which will be big down the road.
Friday, March 16, 2012
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Miracle on F Street
In order to have a successful season, an NHL team needs to be able to do two things, beat the teams you are suppose to beat and occasionally win the games you are suppose to lose. The Capitals managed to do both last night in the five most thrilling minutes of the seasons. When Matt Moulson scored for the Islanders 2 minutes into the final frame, all the air and excitement exited Verizon Center and every living tuned into Comcast Sportsnet. There was no way the 2011-2012 Washington Capitals without Nick Backstrom were going to win that game. And of course, as soon as it looked like they were going to break through, Matt Hendricks takes an offensive zone penalty and before we know it, only 5 minutes remain in regulation. Queue the Miracle on F Street.
The best players in the game last night were the grinders: Chimera, Brouwer, and Beagle. So, it came to no surprise that the improbable comeback started with two of them. With about three minutes to play, Chimera won a puck battle in the corner, allowing Matheiu Perreault to make a desperation centering pass that found Troy Brouwer on the far post and swing the momentum to DC. Two minutes later they pulled Neuvirth, and for 30 seconds of 6 on 5, the puck was almost exclusively in the neutral zone as a tired Capitals squad tried desperately to get the puck in the offensive zone. Luckily though, the Islanders cleared the puck into their own bench, allowing the Capitals to call a timeout before an offensive zone draw. The decision of the night was then made by Assistant Coach Jim Johnson, who drew up the tying tip in goal and chose to put Jeff Halpern on ice for the draw, sending the Verizon faithful into the biggest frenzie ever for an overtime forcing goal when Brouwer deflected a Laich shot pass Nabokov. Less than 5 minutes later, the much maligned captain netted the overtime game winning goal in vintage fashion to complete the comeback.
Now, it is important to keep things in perspective. This was one game and a game at home, which has not been the concern this year. It was also against one of the few teams in the East that are outside of the playoff race. It is a game that Capitals were suppose to win, yet barely did. They looked sloppy and frustrated for most of the night. Passes were routinely off the mark or intercepted, cycles often did not lead to chances, and the power play was nothing short of miserable. Despite the rally at the end, many of the key players looked bad, mainly Ovechkin and MoJo. And they are still clinging to 8th place in the conference.
But, it is also equally important not to undervalue the win. It was a very important 2 points in the standings that they stole late. Despite the sloppy and disorganized at times play, they did manage to be in control most of the time. That sounds odd, but I do believe the Capitals were the better team last night and frustration started to take over. They also outshot the Islanders by a recent margin and Michal Neuvirth was nothing short of spectacular at times. Troy Brouwer getting on the scoresheet again is also huge as he is part of the secondary scoring that has been missing lately.
The biggest positive of last night? At the risk of sounding cliche, it was the fact that the Capitals found some heart. Over the weekend leading into the trade deadline, Barry Melrose said the Caps were the most disappointing team in the league and that no trade would solve their lack of heart. It's hard to argue against that statement given the collapses and laughers the Caps how had this year. Last night was a different story. The Capitals 100% lose that game a month ago. But last night they found an extra gear late and gutted out a win. Brooks Laich said after the game that last nights comeback win over the lowly Islanders might sway the season. He very well could be right, but only if they follow it up this weekend with performances against the Devils (who are 5 points ahead of the Caps) and Flyers that are as inspired as the last 5 minutes of last night's win.
The best players in the game last night were the grinders: Chimera, Brouwer, and Beagle. So, it came to no surprise that the improbable comeback started with two of them. With about three minutes to play, Chimera won a puck battle in the corner, allowing Matheiu Perreault to make a desperation centering pass that found Troy Brouwer on the far post and swing the momentum to DC. Two minutes later they pulled Neuvirth, and for 30 seconds of 6 on 5, the puck was almost exclusively in the neutral zone as a tired Capitals squad tried desperately to get the puck in the offensive zone. Luckily though, the Islanders cleared the puck into their own bench, allowing the Capitals to call a timeout before an offensive zone draw. The decision of the night was then made by Assistant Coach Jim Johnson, who drew up the tying tip in goal and chose to put Jeff Halpern on ice for the draw, sending the Verizon faithful into the biggest frenzie ever for an overtime forcing goal when Brouwer deflected a Laich shot pass Nabokov. Less than 5 minutes later, the much maligned captain netted the overtime game winning goal in vintage fashion to complete the comeback.
Now, it is important to keep things in perspective. This was one game and a game at home, which has not been the concern this year. It was also against one of the few teams in the East that are outside of the playoff race. It is a game that Capitals were suppose to win, yet barely did. They looked sloppy and frustrated for most of the night. Passes were routinely off the mark or intercepted, cycles often did not lead to chances, and the power play was nothing short of miserable. Despite the rally at the end, many of the key players looked bad, mainly Ovechkin and MoJo. And they are still clinging to 8th place in the conference.
But, it is also equally important not to undervalue the win. It was a very important 2 points in the standings that they stole late. Despite the sloppy and disorganized at times play, they did manage to be in control most of the time. That sounds odd, but I do believe the Capitals were the better team last night and frustration started to take over. They also outshot the Islanders by a recent margin and Michal Neuvirth was nothing short of spectacular at times. Troy Brouwer getting on the scoresheet again is also huge as he is part of the secondary scoring that has been missing lately.
The biggest positive of last night? At the risk of sounding cliche, it was the fact that the Capitals found some heart. Over the weekend leading into the trade deadline, Barry Melrose said the Caps were the most disappointing team in the league and that no trade would solve their lack of heart. It's hard to argue against that statement given the collapses and laughers the Caps how had this year. Last night was a different story. The Capitals 100% lose that game a month ago. But last night they found an extra gear late and gutted out a win. Brooks Laich said after the game that last nights comeback win over the lowly Islanders might sway the season. He very well could be right, but only if they follow it up this weekend with performances against the Devils (who are 5 points ahead of the Caps) and Flyers that are as inspired as the last 5 minutes of last night's win.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Around the NHL on Trade Deadline
The Caps were not the only quiet team out there. Many were with no real big names moves, making Tradecentre on TSN very awkward. Here is a brief rundown of the impact deals.
- Jeff Carter to LA, with Jack Johnson and 1st going to C-Bus
Great move for both. Carter back with Richards and a stud defenseman for Columbus. Move actually happen last week as the big news out of Columbus was Rick Nash staying put.
- Sami Paulsson leaves Columbus as Vancouver deals a 2 and 4.
Good depth for a team that can make a run at the Cup again.
- Cody Hodgson (Van), prospect, and pick for Zack Kassian (Buf), Marc Andre Grangnai and pick
Huge risk for Vancouver as Hodgson is a blue chip prospect who might win the Calder. Kassian is a big body, but a short term move. Only works if they win it all.
- Brian Rolston heads from the Islanders to Bruins for prospects. Also add Greg Zanon.
Have to think this could have been Knuble and Hamrlik. McPhee likely wanted too much, or as he said, would not take futures and picks. Mistake.
- Daniel Winnick and TJ Gallinari leave Mile High for SJ in exchange for Jamie McGinn.
Toughness upgrade in SJ and a young player who has shown the ability to score tis year goes to Colorado.
- Paul Gaustad to Nashville for 1st. Nashville also reunites the Kostitsyns.
Former Caps GM Polie knows this is his shot since they cannot keep Weber and Suter. Gave up a lot for Gaustad and glad McPhee did not do it. Kostitsyns is a risk, but if he messes well again with his brother and behaves, big payoff.
- Johnny Oduya leaves the Peg for Chicago for a 2 and a 3.
Fills a hole for Chicago and gave the Jets good value. It also weakens a team the Caps are chasing,
So again, not much, but no one knows the almost deals. Caps say they were not close to any deals. It was a buyers market with no sellers, although we have no idea how close McPhee got and whether he will live to regret not pulling the trigger.
- Jeff Carter to LA, with Jack Johnson and 1st going to C-Bus
Great move for both. Carter back with Richards and a stud defenseman for Columbus. Move actually happen last week as the big news out of Columbus was Rick Nash staying put.
- Sami Paulsson leaves Columbus as Vancouver deals a 2 and 4.
Good depth for a team that can make a run at the Cup again.
- Cody Hodgson (Van), prospect, and pick for Zack Kassian (Buf), Marc Andre Grangnai and pick
Huge risk for Vancouver as Hodgson is a blue chip prospect who might win the Calder. Kassian is a big body, but a short term move. Only works if they win it all.
- Brian Rolston heads from the Islanders to Bruins for prospects. Also add Greg Zanon.
Have to think this could have been Knuble and Hamrlik. McPhee likely wanted too much, or as he said, would not take futures and picks. Mistake.
- Daniel Winnick and TJ Gallinari leave Mile High for SJ in exchange for Jamie McGinn.
Toughness upgrade in SJ and a young player who has shown the ability to score tis year goes to Colorado.
- Paul Gaustad to Nashville for 1st. Nashville also reunites the Kostitsyns.
Former Caps GM Polie knows this is his shot since they cannot keep Weber and Suter. Gave up a lot for Gaustad and glad McPhee did not do it. Kostitsyns is a risk, but if he messes well again with his brother and behaves, big payoff.
- Johnny Oduya leaves the Peg for Chicago for a 2 and a 3.
Fills a hole for Chicago and gave the Jets good value. It also weakens a team the Caps are chasing,
So again, not much, but no one knows the almost deals. Caps say they were not close to any deals. It was a buyers market with no sellers, although we have no idea how close McPhee got and whether he will live to regret not pulling the trigger.
Huh?
The trade deadline has come and gone. There will be no new faces in DC, yet the disgruntled faces of Knuble and Hamrlik remain. In a move described by many so called experts as shocking, GMGM made no changes to the current Capitals roster. Curiously though, the team did place Backstrom on long term IR, although GMGM confirms that it is retroactive, so he could play next week if healthy. The only advantages to LTIR is that it openes a roster spot and make room under the salary cap, and in Backstroms case 6.7 million in space. I really felt that meant a move was coming given the timing of the decision. They could have done that tomorrow and still opened a roster spot. Not moving Hamrlik makes no sense at all. He has been a disaster, is on the books next year, does not mesh with the coach, and could help a team needing depth. Take literally anything for him.
Now, if the Capitals tried to make moves and the price was too high, good on GMGM. For instance,the Capitals needed a second line center, and Paul Gaustad would have been a good fit. But he cost Nashville a 1 and 4. Not worth it. And if options for bigger players involved Kuznetsov, ditto. But, it is hard to believe nothing could be done to improve this team, despite McPhee's claim that there was nothing out there better than what they have or could call up from Hershey.
Going into today, the Capitals were engulfed in uncertainty. They went 3-3 on during an important stretch of the season leading up to the deadline and the team has bounced between 10 and 8 in the conference for the last week or so. One assumes when you are going well and want to move to the next level you deal. Clearly not the Capitals. You also deal when you are not going well and want to give yourself a chance. Then of course, when you are not going well and are to far behind to improve, you sell. That Caps fall into both those categories, yet did nothing, signaling that they not only lack an identity on the ice, but also in the main office. McPhee clearly does not know what to make of this team, so rather than making a change, he is going to live or die with a team that constantly takes one step forward then two giant steps back. And it is terrfying to hear that McPhee has been happy with the play the "last few days", implying that he thinks it can turn around without any changes. He did nothing to help them live and nothing to ameliorate the death.
Meanwhile, the Panthers added two depth forwards over the last few days and the Jets are streaking. Nothing is over and anything can happen over the last 20 games, but one cannot help but think this was McPhee throwing in the towel without really letting us know that is his plan. He just simply does not know what to make of this team. The best we can hope for is that e team makes a little run, sneaks into the 7 or 8 spot (or 3 if they win the SE no one seems to want to win) and Nick Backstrom starts skating in mid March and is ready at the gates when the post season starts and the Caps make a run. Clearly what McPhee thinks will happen, but seems unlikily with the uncertaintiy with concussions and the lack of action today. Unlikely. More likely seems to be sneaking in and leaving early or scheduling tee times in early April. McPhee stated that with Backstrom, this team can beat anyone in the East, without they can make the playoffs, confirming that he is putting all his eggs in a healthy Nick Backstrom basket. Yet he did nothing to help them get to the point where there is an opportunity for Backstrom to help.
Just starting to look like a season that began with the Caps getting the steal of the free agency and being crown Stanley Cup Champs in "The Hockey News" preview is actually going to fall incredibly short of expectations.
Now, if the Capitals tried to make moves and the price was too high, good on GMGM. For instance,the Capitals needed a second line center, and Paul Gaustad would have been a good fit. But he cost Nashville a 1 and 4. Not worth it. And if options for bigger players involved Kuznetsov, ditto. But, it is hard to believe nothing could be done to improve this team, despite McPhee's claim that there was nothing out there better than what they have or could call up from Hershey.
Going into today, the Capitals were engulfed in uncertainty. They went 3-3 on during an important stretch of the season leading up to the deadline and the team has bounced between 10 and 8 in the conference for the last week or so. One assumes when you are going well and want to move to the next level you deal. Clearly not the Capitals. You also deal when you are not going well and want to give yourself a chance. Then of course, when you are not going well and are to far behind to improve, you sell. That Caps fall into both those categories, yet did nothing, signaling that they not only lack an identity on the ice, but also in the main office. McPhee clearly does not know what to make of this team, so rather than making a change, he is going to live or die with a team that constantly takes one step forward then two giant steps back. And it is terrfying to hear that McPhee has been happy with the play the "last few days", implying that he thinks it can turn around without any changes. He did nothing to help them live and nothing to ameliorate the death.
Meanwhile, the Panthers added two depth forwards over the last few days and the Jets are streaking. Nothing is over and anything can happen over the last 20 games, but one cannot help but think this was McPhee throwing in the towel without really letting us know that is his plan. He just simply does not know what to make of this team. The best we can hope for is that e team makes a little run, sneaks into the 7 or 8 spot (or 3 if they win the SE no one seems to want to win) and Nick Backstrom starts skating in mid March and is ready at the gates when the post season starts and the Caps make a run. Clearly what McPhee thinks will happen, but seems unlikily with the uncertaintiy with concussions and the lack of action today. Unlikely. More likely seems to be sneaking in and leaving early or scheduling tee times in early April. McPhee stated that with Backstrom, this team can beat anyone in the East, without they can make the playoffs, confirming that he is putting all his eggs in a healthy Nick Backstrom basket. Yet he did nothing to help them get to the point where there is an opportunity for Backstrom to help.
Just starting to look like a season that began with the Caps getting the steal of the free agency and being crown Stanley Cup Champs in "The Hockey News" preview is actually going to fall incredibly short of expectations.
Sunday, February 26, 2012
What Does it All Mean
Huge win in FLA, two inexcusable defeats during arguably the most important stretch of the season followed two convincing wins, one on the road. And all days before the trade deadline. Many, including this blog, felt that the last 6 games would determine the fate and direction of the team for the rest of the season. And naturally, they went 3-3 and ended with 2 wins in a row, leaving them points wise in the same spot as before but with a sense of optimism that they might be close to turning the corner. What it also does is confirm that this team is both inconsistent and lacks identity. But if you take the pulse of Caps nation today, many would say the season is still very much
The feeling that the Caps are not dead yet is a fair one. They are getting very lucky right now, that despite their play, they are staying in the same spot in the standings because every team around them is also floundering. All that has really changed is that the Jets are now in the mix. Florida is becoming the team everyone thought they were, good but not a threat, and Toronto is doing the typical Toronto flop. So the Capitals are alive.
At the same time though, there is no doubt that this team has issues and many of them are not quick fixes. Hunter is beginning to look Ike he might not be the answer, which is not helped by the tear Bruce Boudreau is currently on. The power play is still terrible and the Caps trend of playing poorly early on the road has crippled their record.
So, what should GMGM do before 3pm tomorrow? Those who see the team as flawed, lacking depth, talent, and the consistency necessary to make it out of the first round would advocate selling the team, which means moving Semin, Vokoun, Knuble, Halpern, Hamrilk, And Wideman for picks and prospects. Those who have been fooled into thinking this is a Stanley Cup team again would throw the farm at Columbus order Nashville for Rick Nash and Ryan Suter. So, what to do?
Not to take the easy why out, but the answer lies in between. The Caps are only 1 point out of the playoffs and the 3rd seed. And while the road trip could have gone better, they did pick up 6 points a kept pace. Even if you do not think they are capable of a run, a team cannot completely sell when they are clearly in the hunt. It sends the wrong message to the team, coaches, and fans. And do not underestimate that last point. The Caps have build a strong brand in DC cannot ruin that by selling when 1 point out. There is also the impact of Mike Green's return. Despite his polarizing effect on Caps Nation, there is no doubt the team plays better when him in place. So, in a way, the Caps have already made an internal trade deadline upgrade. Plus, action at the trade deadline would do exactly what many have thought the Caps have needed in the past, meaning games down the stretch to transition into a run in April, May, and June.
So, do both. First, move Knuble and Hamirlik at minimum. They are great for teams firmly in the playoffs, but bad for those fighting to get in. Take picks, players, or prospects. It does not matter. Also consider moving Vokoun for a big enough return. The Caps need offense and Neuvirth looks like he can handle the rest of the year. But do not move him for nothing. Then, make a play for a center. This can be a bigger splash move than normal for McPhee at the deadline. Possible targets should be Derek Roy, Derek Brassard, or the newly available Tomas Plakanec, who would be a perfect fit with Alex Semin and a potent one-two punch with Backstrom if he returns. All these deals should be possible with picks as long as McPhee turns the players above into picks. The only big name I would consider moving is Semin and only if he returns something solid. I doubt he is back next year either way. So essentially, buy and sell to give you a chance this year without forfeiting the farm, which might be needed if this all fails.
If none of this works and the season goes down in flames, blow it up this offseason. But there is no reason to do it at the deadline given where they stand today.
The feeling that the Caps are not dead yet is a fair one. They are getting very lucky right now, that despite their play, they are staying in the same spot in the standings because every team around them is also floundering. All that has really changed is that the Jets are now in the mix. Florida is becoming the team everyone thought they were, good but not a threat, and Toronto is doing the typical Toronto flop. So the Capitals are alive.
At the same time though, there is no doubt that this team has issues and many of them are not quick fixes. Hunter is beginning to look Ike he might not be the answer, which is not helped by the tear Bruce Boudreau is currently on. The power play is still terrible and the Caps trend of playing poorly early on the road has crippled their record.
So, what should GMGM do before 3pm tomorrow? Those who see the team as flawed, lacking depth, talent, and the consistency necessary to make it out of the first round would advocate selling the team, which means moving Semin, Vokoun, Knuble, Halpern, Hamrilk, And Wideman for picks and prospects. Those who have been fooled into thinking this is a Stanley Cup team again would throw the farm at Columbus order Nashville for Rick Nash and Ryan Suter. So, what to do?
Not to take the easy why out, but the answer lies in between. The Caps are only 1 point out of the playoffs and the 3rd seed. And while the road trip could have gone better, they did pick up 6 points a kept pace. Even if you do not think they are capable of a run, a team cannot completely sell when they are clearly in the hunt. It sends the wrong message to the team, coaches, and fans. And do not underestimate that last point. The Caps have build a strong brand in DC cannot ruin that by selling when 1 point out. There is also the impact of Mike Green's return. Despite his polarizing effect on Caps Nation, there is no doubt the team plays better when him in place. So, in a way, the Caps have already made an internal trade deadline upgrade. Plus, action at the trade deadline would do exactly what many have thought the Caps have needed in the past, meaning games down the stretch to transition into a run in April, May, and June.
So, do both. First, move Knuble and Hamirlik at minimum. They are great for teams firmly in the playoffs, but bad for those fighting to get in. Take picks, players, or prospects. It does not matter. Also consider moving Vokoun for a big enough return. The Caps need offense and Neuvirth looks like he can handle the rest of the year. But do not move him for nothing. Then, make a play for a center. This can be a bigger splash move than normal for McPhee at the deadline. Possible targets should be Derek Roy, Derek Brassard, or the newly available Tomas Plakanec, who would be a perfect fit with Alex Semin and a potent one-two punch with Backstrom if he returns. All these deals should be possible with picks as long as McPhee turns the players above into picks. The only big name I would consider moving is Semin and only if he returns something solid. I doubt he is back next year either way. So essentially, buy and sell to give you a chance this year without forfeiting the farm, which might be needed if this all fails.
If none of this works and the season goes down in flames, blow it up this offseason. But there is no reason to do it at the deadline given where they stand today.
Monday, February 20, 2012
Evaluating GMGM
Today on "THe Mke Wise Show with Holden Kushner" on 106.7 The Fan, Capitals beat writer Sky Kerstine questioned whether longtime GM George McPhee is currently managing for this job. McPhee has long been considered one of the top General Managers in the NHL, but in a season where many considered the Caps to be a Cup contender, the possible disastrous end to the season will begin discussion of McPhee's job security. As the old adage goes, it is hard to fire the whole team, so normally the coach and GM are the first to go.
So, if the Caps miss the playoffs, should GMGM go? To answer that question, we need to look at his career as a whole, not just this year. To truly evaluate a GM, you need to consider four major factors: draft success, free agent signings, trades, and extensions.
Draft Success: McPhee's draft success has been a mixed bag, with the early years being questionable and the late years looking much better. Obviously, the best player McPhee drafted was Ovechkin in 2004 and that was hard to mess up. Up until the 2004 draft though, it can be argued that McPhee had at best 2 good draft picks, Eric Fehr in 2003 and Semin and in 2004, and only Semin has been exceptional. McPhee also blew a chance to really improve his club in 2002 when he selected Gordon, Steve Eminger, and Semin in the top 20 picks while missing on the likes of Cam Ward and Duncan Keith. As a whole, from the year 1997 to 2003 only 8 McPhee picks saw extensive time with the team, which is terrible.
Post 2004 has been a different story for McPhee. Thanks in large part to the 2003 fire sale, McPhee did exceptionally well in the early rounds of drafts. The 2004 draft netted Ovechkin, Mike Green and Jeff Schultz in the 1st round, all of which have made significant impacts on the team. Then the 2006 draft saw Backstrom, Varlamov, and Neuvirth join the team in the first 2 rounds while the 2007 and 2008 drafts created the dynamic defensive duo of Alzner and Carlson in round 1. More recent drafts are hard to judge, but players like MoJo, Orlov, Kuznetsov, Holtby, Galiev, Eakin and more look like solid picks. While tis clearly shows McPhee has improved as a judge of talent, he has not yet found a late round gem, although that is really hit or miss.
Free Agent Signings: This is the area where I think McPhee has fallen short of expectations. Take this year alone, where Hamrlik and Joel Ward have been huge disappoints that are impossible to move. There is also the disaster that was the Nylander signing as well as the extension given to Jagr right after trading for him. McPhee also chose to settle for Brian Pothier rather than go all out for Zdeno Chara.
This is not to say it has all been bad. Mike Knuble has been great in his time with DC and his Robert Lang signing in 2002 would have been good if at a different time. Viktor Kozlov also was a good signing as well Tom Poti in 2006 and Halpern and Voukoun has worked out this year.
Trades: McPhee's best area in my opinion. The only truly bad trade he has made was the deal for Jagr. He was masterful before the lockout, moving aging stars such as Peter Bondra, Robert Lang, Adam Oates and more for important future pieces such as Brooks Laich, Fleischmann, and picks that turned into people like Mike Green. He also has been very good at the deadline. In 1998 he traded for ESA Tikkean, who despite his infamous missed goal in game 2 of the Cup Finals, was key to the 1998 Cinderella Cup run. His moves in 2008 to bring in Cristobal Huet, Sergei Federov, and Matt Cooke can be considered franchise altering as it propelled the Caps from worst to first in the Southeast and signaled the success of the rebuild. His trades for Zubrus and Wideman were also good and despite the success of Fleischmann this year, the trade for Hannan was right at the time. The Brouwer move at the draft this year also seems to be strong and he robbed Colorado blind with the Varlamov deal that gave the Caps 2 1st round picks.
Extensions: If trades are McPhee's strength, I would argue this is his weakness. McPhee seems to continually resign players too soon or for too much. A prime example of too soon was Tom Poti, who has not seen the ice since he resigned 2 years ago. Example of too much would be Schultz, who had one good year and has been terrible since. Many now would also point to the Ovechkin deal as too long and too much, but at the time it was 100% the correct move.
So to summarize, McPhee has improved in his drafting and talent evaluations, is good at making adjustments via trades, yet often falls short of free agents and extensions. Most would consider that pretty good for a GM and this would be the first season he has really fallen short of expectations given the teams success.
So, should he be fired if the Caps miss the playoffs? Yes and no. You cannot fire the whole team, and Bruce was already fired so McPhee is the logical next choice. But, the new coach and injuries should save him as no team could succeed without their top center snd defeseman for most of the season. But, he might need to have a come to Jesus moment and realize that the core he has committed to might not be able to get the job done and drastic moves will need to be made. So, I think he gets a pass this year, but his choice on how to respond to a missed playoff will determine his long term future.
So, if the Caps miss the playoffs, should GMGM go? To answer that question, we need to look at his career as a whole, not just this year. To truly evaluate a GM, you need to consider four major factors: draft success, free agent signings, trades, and extensions.
Draft Success: McPhee's draft success has been a mixed bag, with the early years being questionable and the late years looking much better. Obviously, the best player McPhee drafted was Ovechkin in 2004 and that was hard to mess up. Up until the 2004 draft though, it can be argued that McPhee had at best 2 good draft picks, Eric Fehr in 2003 and Semin and in 2004, and only Semin has been exceptional. McPhee also blew a chance to really improve his club in 2002 when he selected Gordon, Steve Eminger, and Semin in the top 20 picks while missing on the likes of Cam Ward and Duncan Keith. As a whole, from the year 1997 to 2003 only 8 McPhee picks saw extensive time with the team, which is terrible.
Post 2004 has been a different story for McPhee. Thanks in large part to the 2003 fire sale, McPhee did exceptionally well in the early rounds of drafts. The 2004 draft netted Ovechkin, Mike Green and Jeff Schultz in the 1st round, all of which have made significant impacts on the team. Then the 2006 draft saw Backstrom, Varlamov, and Neuvirth join the team in the first 2 rounds while the 2007 and 2008 drafts created the dynamic defensive duo of Alzner and Carlson in round 1. More recent drafts are hard to judge, but players like MoJo, Orlov, Kuznetsov, Holtby, Galiev, Eakin and more look like solid picks. While tis clearly shows McPhee has improved as a judge of talent, he has not yet found a late round gem, although that is really hit or miss.
Free Agent Signings: This is the area where I think McPhee has fallen short of expectations. Take this year alone, where Hamrlik and Joel Ward have been huge disappoints that are impossible to move. There is also the disaster that was the Nylander signing as well as the extension given to Jagr right after trading for him. McPhee also chose to settle for Brian Pothier rather than go all out for Zdeno Chara.
This is not to say it has all been bad. Mike Knuble has been great in his time with DC and his Robert Lang signing in 2002 would have been good if at a different time. Viktor Kozlov also was a good signing as well Tom Poti in 2006 and Halpern and Voukoun has worked out this year.
Trades: McPhee's best area in my opinion. The only truly bad trade he has made was the deal for Jagr. He was masterful before the lockout, moving aging stars such as Peter Bondra, Robert Lang, Adam Oates and more for important future pieces such as Brooks Laich, Fleischmann, and picks that turned into people like Mike Green. He also has been very good at the deadline. In 1998 he traded for ESA Tikkean, who despite his infamous missed goal in game 2 of the Cup Finals, was key to the 1998 Cinderella Cup run. His moves in 2008 to bring in Cristobal Huet, Sergei Federov, and Matt Cooke can be considered franchise altering as it propelled the Caps from worst to first in the Southeast and signaled the success of the rebuild. His trades for Zubrus and Wideman were also good and despite the success of Fleischmann this year, the trade for Hannan was right at the time. The Brouwer move at the draft this year also seems to be strong and he robbed Colorado blind with the Varlamov deal that gave the Caps 2 1st round picks.
Extensions: If trades are McPhee's strength, I would argue this is his weakness. McPhee seems to continually resign players too soon or for too much. A prime example of too soon was Tom Poti, who has not seen the ice since he resigned 2 years ago. Example of too much would be Schultz, who had one good year and has been terrible since. Many now would also point to the Ovechkin deal as too long and too much, but at the time it was 100% the correct move.
So to summarize, McPhee has improved in his drafting and talent evaluations, is good at making adjustments via trades, yet often falls short of free agents and extensions. Most would consider that pretty good for a GM and this would be the first season he has really fallen short of expectations given the teams success.
So, should he be fired if the Caps miss the playoffs? Yes and no. You cannot fire the whole team, and Bruce was already fired so McPhee is the logical next choice. But, the new coach and injuries should save him as no team could succeed without their top center snd defeseman for most of the season. But, he might need to have a come to Jesus moment and realize that the core he has committed to might not be able to get the job done and drastic moves will need to be made. So, I think he gets a pass this year, but his choice on how to respond to a missed playoff will determine his long term future.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Notes from Kettler
Interesting day at Kettler for the Caps. Yesterday, longtime goalie and legend Olie Kolzig called out Ovechkin for not working hard like he did in his younger days and succumbing to "the rock star life that comes with being Alex Ovechkin". One would expect the team to try and smooth that comment over, but McPhee was shocking frank when asked about it and said the comment was not entirely untrue.
On the ice, reports are that the rock star and the all star exchanged words and shoves as Ovechkin and Wideman apparently had a brief altercation. Both shrugged it off after practice, but tense practice and tense words from the boss are both worth noting. This either means the run is coming...... Or the wheels are about to completely come off. Now would be the time to run with a 4 game road swing that includes games v Ottawa, Carolina, Tampa, and of course FLA. A 4 game tear against teams that are in the race but not overly intimidating would be just to medicine to cure the woeful Caps.
Flyers also made a deal for a defenseman today, which could officially start the trade deadline excitement. No new news from the Caps besides McPhee saying that Knuble would not be traded. But, if we have learned anything about McPhee over the years, it's to never trust what he says this time of year.
On the ice, reports are that the rock star and the all star exchanged words and shoves as Ovechkin and Wideman apparently had a brief altercation. Both shrugged it off after practice, but tense practice and tense words from the boss are both worth noting. This either means the run is coming...... Or the wheels are about to completely come off. Now would be the time to run with a 4 game road swing that includes games v Ottawa, Carolina, Tampa, and of course FLA. A 4 game tear against teams that are in the race but not overly intimidating would be just to medicine to cure the woeful Caps.
Flyers also made a deal for a defenseman today, which could officially start the trade deadline excitement. No new news from the Caps besides McPhee saying that Knuble would not be traded. But, if we have learned anything about McPhee over the years, it's to never trust what he says this time of year.
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